00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live01:01CEST
live
Market inspector · milan · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C or below on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 24.3C to 26.2C (+2.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Cyouhighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 16corbelow—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 20c—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 23c—0.2%—24Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 24c—4.9%—25Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 25c—35.0%—≥26Chighest temperature in milan on april 27 2026 26corhigher—69.0%—