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Market inspector · panama-city · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C on May 2?
μ blend29.45C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.99combined uncertainty
source spread±0.43Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±2.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 29.451C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 29.4C to 30.4C (+1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤22Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 22corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp23Cyouhighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 23c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp24Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 24c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp25Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 25c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp26Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 26c0.6%0.1%+0.5pp27Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 27c6.4%0.5%+5.9pp28Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 28c25.3%1.6%+23.7pp29Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 29c38.7%22.0%+16.7pp30Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 30c23.1%51.0%-27.9pp31Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 31c5.3%25.0%-19.7pp≥32Chighest temperature in panama city on may 2 2026 32corhigher0.5%12.1%-11.6pp