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Market inspector · chengdu · 2026-04-23
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on April 23?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤21Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 21corbelow—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 23c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 24c—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 25c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 26c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 27c—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 28c—99.9%—29Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 29c—0.2%—30Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 30c—0.1%—≥31Cyouhighest temperature in chengdu on april 23 2026 31corhigher—0.1%—