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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 28.8C to 28.3C (-0.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤18Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 18corbelow—0.1%—≤21Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 21corbelow—0.1%—19Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 19c—0.8%—20Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 20c—0.1%—21Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 21c—1.1%—22Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 22c—0.9%—22Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 22c—0.1%—23Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 23c—3.9%—23Cyouhighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 23c—0.1%—24Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 24c—98.0%—24Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 24c—0.1%—25Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 25c—0.2%—25Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 25c—0.1%—26Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 26c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 26c—0.1%—27Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 27c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 27c—0.1%—≥28Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 28corhigher—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 28c—0.2%—29Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 29c—99.9%—30Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 30c—0.2%—≥31Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 28 2026 31corhigher—0.1%—