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Market inspector · buenos-aires · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 2?
μ blend17.03C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.85combined uncertainty
source spread±1.42Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour00:00 ±5.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 17.03C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 16.6C to 17.5C (+0.9C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 10corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp11Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 11c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp12Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 12c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp13Cyouhighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 13c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp14Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 14c0.9%0.1%+0.8pp15Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 15c10.5%31.9%-21.4pp16Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 16c37.2%34.0%+3.2pp17Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 17c38.6%29.0%+9.6pp18Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 18c11.8%12.0%-0.2pp19Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 19c1.0%3.6%-2.6pp≥20Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 2 2026 20corhigher0.0%1.0%-1.0pp