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Market inspector · madrid · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 22.9C to 23.6C (+0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤19Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 19corbelow—0.2%—20Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 20c—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 22c—0.4%—23Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 23c—2.5%—24Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 24c—16.0%—25Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 25c—55.0%—26Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 26c—29.0%—27Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 27c—7.3%—28Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 28c—1.4%—≥29Chighest temperature in madrid on may 1 2026 29corhigher—0.2%—