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Market inspector · moscow · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets10same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 10 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 7.1C to 6.1C (-1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤2Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 neg 2corbelow—0.1%—0Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 0c—0.1%—1Cyouhighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 1c—0.1%—2Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 2c—79.4%—3Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 3c—18.0%—4Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 4c—5.2%—5Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 5c—0.3%—6Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 6c—0.6%—7Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 7c—0.3%—≥8Chighest temperature in moscow on april 27 2026 8corhigher—0.3%—