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Market inspector · paris · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
53 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 53 snapshots; drift from 23.2C to 24.3C (+1.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 15corbelow—0.1%—≤2Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 2corbelow—0.4%—3Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 3c—0.3%—4Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 4c—0.6%—5Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 5c—0.5%—6Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 6c—99.8%—7Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 7c—0.1%—8Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 8c—0.1%—9Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 9c—0.1%—10Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 10c—0.1%—11Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 11c—0.1%—≥12Clowest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 12corhigher—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 18c—0.1%—19Cyouhighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 20c—0.2%—21Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 21c—6.0%—22Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 22c—60.0%—23Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 23c—36.0%—24Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 24c—2.7%—≥25Chighest temperature in paris on april 26 2026 25corhigher—0.9%—