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Market inspector · singapore · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 2?
μ blend31.50C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.29combined uncertainty
source spread±0.79Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 31.503C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
89 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 89 snapshots; drift from 32.5C to 32.5C (+0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤25Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 25corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp26Cyouhighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 26c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp27Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 27c0.3%0.1%+0.2pp28Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 28c2.3%0.1%+2.2pp29Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 29c9.6%0.1%+9.5pp30Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 30c22.6%0.1%+22.5pp31Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 31c30.1%0.1%+30.0pp32Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 32c22.7%0.1%+22.6pp33Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 33c9.7%——34Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 34c2.3%0.1%+2.2pp≥35Chighest temperature in singapore on may 2 2026 35corhigher0.3%0.1%+0.2pp