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Market inspector · wellington · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 2?
μ blend15.33C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.83combined uncertainty
source spread±0.38Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±0.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 15.333C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 15.1C to 15.1C (+0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 10corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp11Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 11c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp12Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 12c0.2%0.1%+0.1pp13Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 13c5.1%0.1%+5.0pp14Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 14c29.0%0.1%+28.9pp15Cyouhighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 15c44.6%0.1%+44.5pp16Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 16c18.8%——17Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 17c2.1%0.1%+2.1pp18Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 18c0.1%0.1%-0.0pp19Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 19c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥20Chighest temperature in wellington on may 2 2026 20corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp