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Market inspector · lagos · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 33.4C to 33.5C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤28Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 28corbelow—0.1%—29Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 29c—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 30c—0.1%—31Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 31c—12.0%—32Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 32c—24.0%—33Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 33c—33.0%—34Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 34c—34.0%—35Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 35c—19.0%—36Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 36c—2.4%—37Cyouhighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 37c—0.6%—≥38Chighest temperature in lagos on may 1 2026 38corhigher—0.5%—