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Market inspector · panama-city · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 29.9C to 31.2C (+1.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤23Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 23corbelow—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 24c—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 25c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 26c—0.6%—27Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 27c—0.9%—28Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 28c—0.4%—29Cyouhighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 29c—2.9%—30Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 30c—30.0%—31Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 31c—41.0%—32Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 32c—31.0%—≥33Chighest temperature in panama city on may 1 2026 33corhigher—9.0%—