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Market inspector · london · 2026-04-23

Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on April 23?

polymarket →
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings

Ensemble trajectory · last 7d

0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensemble

Not enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).

Bucket edges · our_p − market_p

positive = we think bucket is underpriced
≤0Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 0corbelow—0.6%—≤13Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 13corbelow—0.2%—1Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 1c—0.4%—2Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 2c—0.3%—3Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 3c—0.7%—4Cyoulowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 4c—0.8%—5Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 5c—0.5%—6Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 6c—0.5%—7Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 7c—99.8%—8Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 8c—0.1%—9Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 9c—0.1%—≥10Clowest temperature in london on april 23 2026 10corhigher—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 14c—0.2%—15Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 15c—1.9%—16Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 16c—20.9%—17Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 17c—52.0%—18Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 18c—30.0%—19Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 19c—1.5%—20Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 20c—0.4%—21Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 21c—0.2%—22Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 22c—0.2%—≥23Chighest temperature in london on april 23 2026 23corhigher—0.2%—