00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live01:03CEST
live
Market inspector · los-angeles · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 2?
μ blend70.86F104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.24combined uncertainty
source spread±4.35Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.1hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 70.855F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 70.8F to 70.8F (+0.1F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤55Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 55forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp56Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 56 57f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp58Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 58 59f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp60Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 60 61f0.0%0.9%-0.9pp62Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 62 63f0.0%1.0%-1.0pp64Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 64 65f0.3%8.0%-7.7pp66Fyouhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 66 67f2.8%49.0%-46.3pp68Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 68 69f10.3%40.0%-29.7pp70Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 70 71f17.4%10.0%+7.4pp72Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 72 73f13.6%1.5%+12.0pp≥74Fhighest temperature in los angeles on may 2 2026 74forhigher8.0%0.6%+7.4pp