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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-04-23
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on April 23?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤21Cyouhighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 21corbelow—0.1%—≤19Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 19corbelow—0.7%—20Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 20c—1.9%—21Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 21c—10.7%—22Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 22c—0.1%—22Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 22c—43.0%—23Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 23c—0.1%—23Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 23c—65.0%—24Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 24c—0.1%—24Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 24c—20.0%—25Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 25c—0.1%—25Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 25c—2.0%—26Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 26c—0.1%—26Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 26c—2.2%—27Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 27c—0.1%—27Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 27c—0.5%—28Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 28c—0.4%—28Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 28c—0.2%—29Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 29c—99.9%—≥29Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 29corhigher—0.5%—30Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 30c—0.2%—≥31Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 31corhigher—0.1%—