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Market inspector · austin · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 90.8F to 95.5F (+4.7F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤73Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 73forbelow—0.1%—74Fyouhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 74 75f—0.1%—76Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 76 77f—0.1%—78Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 78 79f—0.1%—80Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 80 81f—0.7%—82Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 82 83f—0.1%—84Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 84 85f—0.3%—86Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 86 87f—0.7%—88Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 88 89f—10.9%—90Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 90 91f—46.0%—≥92Fhighest temperature in austin on april 28 2026 92forhigher—56.0%—