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Market inspector · atlanta · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 2?
μ blend64.88F104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.08combined uncertainty
source spread±1.92Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±4.2hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 64.877F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 64.4F to 67.6F (+3.2F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤59Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 59forbelow0.2%0.1%+0.1pp60Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 60 61f2.2%0.3%+1.9pp62Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 62 63f10.0%2.0%+8.0pp64Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 64 65f18.7%8.0%+10.7pp66Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 66 67f14.1%26.0%-11.9pp68Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 68 69f4.3%52.0%-47.7pp70Fyouhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 70 71f0.5%14.0%-13.5pp72Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 72 73f0.0%2.9%-2.9pp74Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 74 75f0.0%0.5%-0.5pp76Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 76 77f0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≥78Fhighest temperature in atlanta on may 2 2026 78forhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp