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Market inspector · lucknow · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 37.1C to 34.8C (-2.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤34Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 34corbelow—98.8%—35Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 35c—1.7%—36Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 36c—0.3%—37Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 37c—0.3%—38Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 38c—0.4%—39Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 39c—0.5%—40Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 40c—0.1%—41Cyouhighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 41c—0.1%—42Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 42c—0.1%—43Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 43c—0.1%—≥44Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 1 2026 44corhigher—0.1%—