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Market inspector · milan · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C or below on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 18.7C to 19.9C (+1.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Cyouhighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 14corbelow—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 18c—0.6%—19Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 19c—3.7%—20Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 20c—23.0%—21Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 21c—59.0%—22Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 22c—21.0%—23Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 23c—1.2%—≥24Chighest temperature in milan on may 1 2026 24corhigher—0.5%—