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Market inspector · denver · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
53 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 53 snapshots; drift from 63.7F to 62.1F (-1.6F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤45Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 45forbelow—0.6%—46Fyouhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 46 47f—0.7%—48Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 48 49f—0.5%—50Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 50 51f—3.4%—52Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 52 53f—8.5%—54Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 54 55f—26.7%—56Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 56 57f—35.0%—58Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 58 59f—24.0%—60Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 60 61f—2.2%—62Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 62 63f—1.6%—≥64Fhighest temperature in denver on april 26 2026 64forhigher—3.9%—