00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:45CEST
live
Market inspector · tokyo · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
71 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 71 snapshots; drift from 16.6C to 16.5C (-0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤9Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 9corbelow—0.9%—≤11Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 11corbelow—0.1%—10Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 10c—0.9%—11Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 11c—0.5%—12Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 12c—5.4%—12Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 12c—0.1%—13Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 13c—49.0%—13Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 13c—0.1%—14Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 14c—84.0%—14Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 14c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 15c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 15c—0.1%—16Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 16c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 16c—99.9%—17Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 17c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 17c—0.3%—18Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 18c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 18c—0.1%—≥19Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 19corhigher—0.1%—19Cyouhighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 20c—0.1%—≥21Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 30 2026 21corhigher—0.1%—