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Market inspector · seattle · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 4?
μ blend78.66F236 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.67combined uncertainty
source spread±2.68Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 78.661F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
29 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 29 snapshots; drift from 80.6F to 78.5F (-2.1F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤55Fyouhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 55forbelow0.0%0.3%-0.3pp56Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 56 57f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp58Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 58 59f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp60Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 60 61f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp62Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 62 63f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp64Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 64 65f0.0%0.4%-0.4pp66Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 66 67f0.0%0.7%-0.7pp68Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 68 69f0.0%0.7%-0.7pp70Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 70 71f0.1%0.9%-0.8pp72Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 72 73f1.1%2.0%-0.9pp≥74Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 4 2026 74forhigher96.0%96.9%-0.9pp