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Market inspector · sao-paulo · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 27.1C to 26.1C (-1.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤25Cyouhighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 25corbelow—25.0%—26Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 26c—42.0%—27Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 27c—23.0%—28Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 28c—9.0%—29Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 29c—2.3%—30Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 30c—0.3%—31Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 31c—0.4%—32Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 32c—0.7%—33Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 33c—0.5%—34Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 34c—0.4%—≥35Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 28 2026 35corhigher—0.4%—