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Market inspector · madrid · 2026-04-23
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 23?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤22Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 22corbelow—1.0%—23Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 23c—0.7%—24Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 24c—1.0%—25Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 25c—1.9%—26Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 26c—16.0%—27Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 27c—45.0%—28Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 28c—41.0%—29Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 29c—5.0%—30Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 30c—0.5%—31Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 31c—0.2%—≥32Chighest temperature in madrid on april 23 2026 32corhigher—0.2%—