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Market inspector · lucknow · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
99 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 99 snapshots; drift from 44.4C to 39.0C (-5.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤37Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 37corbelow—0.1%—38Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 38c—0.1%—39Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 39c—99.8%—40Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 40c—0.6%—41Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 41c—0.1%—42Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 42c—0.2%—43Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 43c—0.2%—44Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 44c—0.2%—45Cyouhighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 45c—0.3%—46Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 46c—0.2%—≥47Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 29 2026 47corhigher—0.1%—