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Market inspector · chicago · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on May 2?
μ blend50.79F104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.09combined uncertainty
source spread±4.17Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±1.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 50.79F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 48.2F to 52.0F (+3.8F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤35Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 35forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp36Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 36 37f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp38Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 38 39f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp40Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 40 41f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp42Fyouhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 42 43f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp44Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 44 45f0.2%0.1%+0.1pp46Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 46 47f2.4%0.3%+2.1pp48Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 48 49f10.5%1.7%+8.8pp50Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 50 51f18.7%6.0%+12.7pp52Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 52 53f13.6%20.0%-6.4pp≥54Fhighest temperature in chicago on may 2 2026 54forhigher6.3%72.0%-65.7pp