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Market inspector · dallas · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 2?
μ blend72.76F112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.83combined uncertainty
source spread±4.72Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 72.763F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 70.5F to 74.9F (+4.4F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤55Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 55forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp56Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 56 57f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp58Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 58 59f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp60Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 60 61f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp62Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 62 63f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp64Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 64 65f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp66Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 66 67f0.1%0.1%-0.0pp68Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 68 69f1.5%0.1%+1.4pp70Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 70 71f10.2%0.4%+9.8pp72Fyouhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 72 73f21.3%9.0%+12.3pp≥74Fhighest temperature in dallas on may 2 2026 74forhigher25.0%91.0%-66.0pp