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Market inspector · guangzhou · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 30.8C to 30.4C (-0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤24Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 24corbelow—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 25c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 26c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 27c—7.9%—28Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 28c—10.0%—29Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 29c—54.0%—30Cyouhighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 30c—99.7%—31Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 31c—1.1%—32Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 32c—0.1%—33Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 33c—0.2%—≥34Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 27 2026 34corhigher—0.1%—