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Market inspector · helsinki · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 8.3C to 8.8C (+0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤3Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 3corbelow—0.1%—4Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 4c—0.1%—5Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 5c—0.1%—6Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 6c—0.1%—7Cyouhighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 7c—0.1%—8Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 8c—0.1%—9Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 9c—0.1%—10Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 10c—95.0%—11Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 11c—7.8%—12Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 12c—0.4%—≥13Chighest temperature in helsinki on april 27 2026 13corhigher—0.3%—