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Market inspector · paris · 2026-04-29
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
99 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 99 snapshots; drift from 23.1C to 21.1C (-2.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 16corbelow—0.1%—≤6Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 6corbelow—0.1%—7Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 7c—0.1%—8Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 8c—0.2%—9Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 9c—0.9%—10Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 10c—0.1%—11Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 11c—8.0%—12Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 12c—4.8%—13Cyoulowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 13c—99.0%—14Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 14c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 15c—0.1%—≥16Clowest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 16corhigher—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 17c—0.2%—18Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 19c—0.2%—20Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 20c—0.4%—21Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 21c—1.4%—22Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 22c—1.9%—23Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 23c—41.0%—24Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 24c—62.0%—25Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 25c—11.0%—≥26Chighest temperature in paris on april 29 2026 26corhigher—1.0%—