00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live01:05CEST
live
Market inspector · paris · 2026-04-30
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or higher on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
73 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 73 snapshots; drift from 19.8C to 20.5C (+0.7C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 14corbelow—0.1%—≤4Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 4corbelow—0.4%—5Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 5c—0.9%—6Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 6c—0.9%—7Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 7c—0.6%—8Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 8c—0.2%—9Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 9c—1.0%—10Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 10c—99.6%—11Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 11c—0.1%—12Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 12c—0.1%—13Clowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 13c—0.1%—≥14Cyoulowest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 14corhigher—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 19c—0.3%—20Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 20c—0.3%—21Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 21c—0.8%—22Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 22c—7.0%—23Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 23c—40.0%—≥24Chighest temperature in paris on april 30 2026 24corhigher—61.0%—