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Market inspector · seattle · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 54.9F to 57.8F (+2.9F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤49Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 49forbelow—0.1%—50Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 50 51f—0.1%—52Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 52 53f—0.3%—54Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 54 55f—0.9%—56Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 56 57f—4.6%—58Fyouhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 58 59f—36.0%—60Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 60 61f—49.0%—62Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 62 63f—16.0%—64Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 64 65f—0.8%—66Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 66 67f—0.5%—≥68Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 27 2026 68forhigher—0.6%—