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Market inspector · lucknow · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 2?
μ blend35.19C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.07combined uncertainty
source spread±1.19Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 35.188C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 38.9C to 36.0C (-2.9C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤36Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 36corbelow77.5%99.9%-22.4pp37Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 37c4.2%0.2%+4.0pp38Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 38c0.4%0.4%+0.0pp39Cyouhighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 39c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp40Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 40c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp41Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 41c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp42Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 42c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp43Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 43c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp44Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 44c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp45Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 45c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥46Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 2 2026 46corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp