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Market inspector · taipei · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on May 2?
μ blend28.85C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.42combined uncertainty
source spread±0.42Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour12:00 ±0.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 28.849C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
95 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 95 snapshots; drift from 29.3C to 29.3C (+0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤24Cyouhighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 24corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp25Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 25c1.9%0.1%+1.8pp26Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 26c7.4%0.1%+7.3pp27Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 27c17.9%0.1%+17.8pp28Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 28c26.8%0.1%+26.7pp29Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 29c24.9%0.1%+24.8pp30Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 30c14.4%0.1%+14.3pp31Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 31c5.1%0.1%+5.0pp32Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 32c1.1%——33Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 33c0.2%0.1%+0.1pp≥34Chighest temperature in taipei on may 2 2026 34corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp