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Market inspector · madrid · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
68 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 68 snapshots; drift from 21.4C to 21.3C (-0.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 17corbelow—0.1%—18Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 18c—0.2%—19Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 19c—0.6%—20Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 20c—4.2%—21Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 21c—22.0%—22Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 22c—40.0%—23Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 23c—29.0%—24Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 24c—9.2%—25Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 25c—1.8%—26Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 26c—0.6%—≥27Chighest temperature in madrid on april 30 2026 27corhigher—0.7%—