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Market inspector · miami · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 85.3F to 87.0F (+1.7F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤67Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 67forbelow—0.6%—≤77Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 77forbelow—0.1%—68Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 68 69f—2.5%—70Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 70 71f—44.0%—72Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 72 73f—80.0%—74Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 74 75f—0.1%—76Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 76 77f—0.1%—78Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 78 79f—0.1%—78Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 78 79f—0.1%—80Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 80 81f—0.1%—80Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 80 81f—0.4%—82Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 82 83f—0.1%—82Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 82 83f—0.8%—84Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 84 85f—0.1%—84Fyouhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 84 85f—4.0%—≥86Flowest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 86forhigher—0.1%—86Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 86 87f—19.0%—88Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 88 89f—54.0%—90Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 90 91f—18.0%—92Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 92 93f—2.9%—94Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 94 95f—0.9%—≥96Fhighest temperature in miami on may 1 2026 96forhigher—0.6%—