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Market inspector · karachi · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 2?
μ blend37.58C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.34combined uncertainty
source spread±1.03Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 37.575C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
90 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 90 snapshots; drift from 39.4C to 38.4C (-1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤29Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 29corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp30Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 30c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp31Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 31c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp32Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 32c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp33Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 33c0.4%0.1%+0.3pp34Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 34c2.4%0.1%+2.3pp35Cyouhighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 35c9.3%0.1%+9.2pp36Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 36c21.4%0.1%+21.3pp37Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 37c29.0%0.1%+28.9pp38Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 38c23.2%0.1%+23.1pp≥39Chighest temperature in karachi on may 2 2026 39corhigher14.4%——