00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:55CEST
live
Market inspector · shanghai · 2026-05-02
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on May 2?
μ blend22.09C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.12combined uncertainty
source spread±0.82Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±2.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.089C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 21.2C to 21.7C (+0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Cyoulowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 11corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp≤18Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 18corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp12Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 12c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp13Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 13c0.0%99.9%-99.9pp14Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 14c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp15Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 15c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp16Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 16c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp17Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 17c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 18c0.3%0.1%+0.2pp19Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 19c2.8%0.1%+2.7pp19Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 19c2.8%0.1%+2.7pp20Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 20c13.5%0.1%+13.4pp20Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 20c13.5%0.1%+13.4pp≥21Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 21corhigher83.4%0.1%+83.3pp21Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 21c30.2%0.1%+30.1pp22Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 22c32.3%0.1%+32.2pp23Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 23c16.4%0.1%+16.3pp24Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 24c4.0%——25Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 25c0.4%0.1%+0.4pp26Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 26c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp27Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 27c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥28Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 2 2026 28corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp