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Market inspector · karachi · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
71 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 71 snapshots; drift from 36.2C to 35.8C (-0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤27Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 27corbelow—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 28c—0.1%—29Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 29c—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 30c—0.1%—31Cyouhighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 31c—0.1%—32Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 32c—0.1%—33Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 33c—0.1%—34Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 34c—0.1%—35Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 35c—0.1%—36Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 36c—99.6%—≥37Chighest temperature in karachi on april 30 2026 37corhigher—1.3%—