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Market inspector · beijing · 2026-04-25
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 25?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
16 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 16 snapshots; drift from 30.4C to 30.9C (+0.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤23Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 23corbelow—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 24c—0.1%—25Cyouhighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 25c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 26c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 27c—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 28c—99.9%—29Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 29c—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 30c—0.1%—31Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 31c—0.1%—32Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 32c—0.1%—≥33Chighest temperature in beijing on april 25 2026 33corhigher—0.1%—