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Market inspector · cape-town · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 17.2C to 17.9C (+0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 11corbelow—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 12c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 15c—0.1%—16Cyouhighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 17c—83.0%—18Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 18c—23.0%—19Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 19c—3.0%—20Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 20c—0.6%—≥21Chighest temperature in cape town on april 27 2026 21corhigher—0.5%—