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Market inspector · cape-town · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 3?
μ blend20.38C284 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.96combined uncertainty
source spread±1.03Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±0.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 20.382C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
74 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 74 snapshots; drift from 20.9C to 20.9C (-0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.3%-0.3pp18Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 18c6.8%0.9%+5.9pp19Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 19c27.0%0.8%+26.2pp20Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 20c39.5%7.8%+31.7pp21Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 21c21.4%24.0%-2.6pp22Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 22c4.3%39.0%-34.8pp23Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 23c0.3%43.0%-42.7pp24Cyouhighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 24c0.0%8.0%-8.0pp25Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 25c0.0%3.9%-3.9pp26Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 26c0.0%0.7%-0.7pp≥27Chighest temperature in cape town on may 3 2026 27corhigher0.0%0.9%-0.9pp