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Market inspector · nyc · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
87 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 87 snapshots; drift from 59.6F to 64.0F (+4.4F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤37Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 37forbelow—0.9%—≤55Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 55forbelow—0.4%—38Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 38 39f—0.2%—40Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 40 41f—0.2%—42Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 42 43f—1.0%—44Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 44 45f—1.9%—46Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 46 47f—3.0%—48Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 48 49f—94.8%—50Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 50 51f—0.1%—52Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 52 53f—0.1%—54Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 54 55f—0.1%—56Fyouhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 56 57f—0.4%—≥56Flowest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 56forhigher—0.1%—58Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 58 59f—0.3%—60Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 60 61f—0.6%—62Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 62 63f—3.9%—64Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 64 65f—23.0%—66Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 66 67f—57.0%—68Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 68 69f—14.4%—70Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 70 71f—2.5%—72Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 72 73f—0.7%—≥74Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 27 2026 74forhigher—0.7%—