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Market inspector · chongqing · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
88 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 88 snapshots; drift from 21.8C to 21.4C (-0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 15corbelow—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 19c—0.1%—20Cyouhighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 20c—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 21c———22Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 22c—0.3%—23Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 23c—0.2%—24Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 24c—0.2%—≥25Chighest temperature in chongqing on april 27 2026 25corhigher—0.2%—