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Market inspector · busan · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C or below on May 2?
μ blend23.89C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.92combined uncertainty
source spread±0.47Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±0.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 23.886C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 25.3C to 24.7C (-0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Cyouhighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 18c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp19Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 19c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp20Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 20c0.1%0.1%-0.0pp21Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 21c1.9%0.1%+1.8pp22Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 22c14.7%0.1%+14.6pp23Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 23c38.3%0.1%+38.2pp24Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 24c33.9%——25Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 25c10.1%0.1%+10.0pp26Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 26c1.0%0.1%+0.9pp≥27Chighest temperature in busan on may 2 2026 27corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp