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Market inspector · denver · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 40-41°F on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
65 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 65 snapshots; drift from 48.8F to 48.9F (+0.1F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤37Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 37forbelow—0.1%—38Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 38 39f—0.1%—40Fyouhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 40 41f—0.1%—42Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 42 43f—0.1%—44Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 44 45f—50.0%—46Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 46 47f—34.0%—48Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 48 49f—7.0%—50Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 50 51f—5.0%—52Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 52 53f—1.9%—54Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 54 55f—0.9%—≥56Fhighest temperature in denver on april 30 2026 56forhigher—0.5%—