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Market inspector · toronto · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 19.3C to 20.5C (+1.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 10corbelow—0.6%—11Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 11c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 12c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 13c—0.4%—14Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 14c—2.2%—15Cyouhighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 15c—6.0%—16Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 16c—22.0%—17Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 17c—34.0%—18Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 18c—28.0%—19Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 19c—6.6%—≥20Chighest temperature in toronto on april 27 2026 20corhigher—2.9%—