00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:48CEST
live
Market inspector · beijing · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
97 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 97 snapshots; drift from 28.4C to 23.3C (-5.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤21Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 21corbelow—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 23c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 24c—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 25c———26Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 26c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 27c—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 28c—0.1%—29Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 29c—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 30c—0.1%—≥31Cyouhighest temperature in beijing on april 29 2026 31corhigher—0.1%—