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Market inspector · shanghai · 2026-04-24
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on April 24?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤5Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 5corbelow—0.1%—≤15Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 15corbelow—0.1%—6Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 6c—0.1%—7Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 7c—0.1%—8Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 8c—0.1%—9Cyoulowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 9c—0.7%—10Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 10c—0.5%—11Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 11c—0.9%—12Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 12c—99.6%—13Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 13c—0.1%—14Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 14c—0.1%—≥15Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 15corhigher—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 20c———21Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 23c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 24c—0.1%—≥25Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 25corhigher—0.1%—