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Market inspector · toronto · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
53 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 53 snapshots; drift from 17.3C to 18.6C (+1.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤8Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 8corbelow—0.1%—9Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 9c—0.2%—10Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 10c—0.5%—11Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 11c—0.9%—12Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 12c—3.0%—13Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 13c—11.0%—14Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 14c—38.0%—15Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 15c—34.0%—16Cyouhighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 16c—13.0%—17Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 17c—3.3%—≥18Chighest temperature in toronto on april 26 2026 18corhigher—0.5%—